- DTN Headline News
Informa: 2015 Bean Acres Up 4.3 Million
Friday, October 17, 2014 12:03PM CDT

By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor

OMAHA (DTN) -- Farmers will likely shift acres from corn to soybeans in 2015 because of the more favorable economics, a report from private analytical firm Informa Economics said.

Informa forecasts corn acreage will decline 3.1 million acres from 2014 to 87.8 ma, while soybean acreage will climb 4.3 ma to 88.5 ma.

"The expectation that corn acres will be less than 2014's 90.9 million acres helps to give corn prices support at these lower levels, but is not necessarily bullish by itself," Hultman said. "The expectation that soybean acres will be increased from 2014's planting of 84.2 million acres is bearish as it adds to notions of even higher soybean supplies in the fall of 2015."

Informa said that using its acreage projections and assuming normal abandonment and trendline yields, corn production comes in at 13.4 billion bushels and soybean production at 3.9 billion bushels.

Its acreage analysis for row crops was largely based on a profitability analysis and economic and weather conditions.

"Of the major row crops, soybeans continue to have the highest implied net revenue return per acres," Informa stated. A chart indicated soybeans' annual planning net revenue is about $200 per acre while corn's is about $29 lower. "Compared with last season, the current incentive to plant corn is lower. As a result, Informa expects that most acres shifted from corn will be planted to soybeans. Informa expects some cotton acreage to shift to soybeans as well due to the economic incentive to plant soybeans relative to cotton."

Informa sees cotton acreage declining 1.6 ma from 2014 to 9.5 million acres. According to Informa's net revenue chart, of the major row crops, cotton is the only one showing negative anticipated revenue for 2015.

Farmers aren't necessarily in agreement on the topic, according to one conversation on Twitter. Cory Ritter, a farmer in Blue Mound, Ill., argues it'd be tough for some farmers to increase soybean acres next year if they already made large increases in 2014. Several others added they're going to stick to their rotations.

Kyle Wendland, who farms near Fredericksburg, Iowa, thinks there are plenty of reasons, mostly economic, for farmers to increase soybean production. Traditionally, his area is heavy on corn-on-corn production. Given the revenue incentives, there's lots of land that could be planted to beans for the first time in a while.

Some farmers pointed to stubbornly high corn seed costs as a reason to plant more beans. Others argued that double-crop bean acres are likely to be higher next year.

While it's not a perfect benchmark, Hultman said the new-crop soybean-to-corn price ratio for 2015 is at 2.46, which is more in line with historical levels and less than the current 2.76 ratio. The higher the ratio, the higher the economic incentive is to plant soybeans over corn.

"More importantly, Dec 2015 corn is priced at $3.95, which is even with USDA’s estimated production cost per bushel for 2014-15," Hultman said. "Nov 2015 soybeans are priced at $9.73, which is below USDA’s estimated cost per bushel of $10.14 for 2014-15. This suggests a slight edge for planting more corn, but the problem here is that USDA’s soybean cost estimate may be low.

"I would say that it is too early yet to confidently know which direction plantings will go next spring."

Informa also released its forecast for wheat acreage based on its surveys, and it's little changed from 2014. Overall acreage was estimated at 56.4 ma, about 400,000 acres less than last year. Hard red winter wheat acreage dropped about 300,000 acres to 30.3 ma while soft red winter wheat acreage is expected to total 8 ma, down 238,000 acres.

Katie Micik can be reached at katie.micik@dtn.com


blog iconDTN Blogs & Forums
DTN Market Matters Blog
Katie Micik
Markets Editor
Friday, October 17, 2014 7:21PM CDT
Thursday, October 16, 2014 7:06PM CDT
Monday, October 13, 2014 3:47PM CDT
Technically Speaking
Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst
Monday, October 20, 2014 10:04AM CDT
Sunday, October 19, 2014 1:33PM CDT
Saturday, October 18, 2014 3:14PM CDT
Fundamentally Speaking
Joel Karlin
DTN Contributing Analyst
Friday, October 17, 2014 12:08PM CDT
Friday, October 10, 2014 12:40PM CDT
Thursday, October 9, 2014 1:45PM CDT
DTN Ag Policy Blog
Chris Clayton
DTN Ag Policy Editor
Tuesday, October 21, 2014 1:06AM CDT
Friday, October 17, 2014 12:00AM CDT
Thursday, October 16, 2014 7:29PM CDT
Minding Ag's Business
Marcia Taylor
DTN Executive Editor
Thursday, October 16, 2014 7:27PM CDT
Friday, October 10, 2014 8:52PM CDT
Tuesday, October 7, 2014 6:09PM CDT
DTN Ag Weather Forum
Bryce Anderson
DTN Ag Meteorologist and DTN Analyst
Monday, October 20, 2014 4:08PM CDT
Friday, October 17, 2014 7:40PM CDT
Thursday, October 16, 2014 5:16PM CDT
DTN Production Blog
Pam Smith
Crops Technology Editor
Tuesday, October 7, 2014 8:50PM CDT
Friday, September 19, 2014 7:15PM CDT
Thursday, September 4, 2014 11:19AM CDT
Harrington's Sort & Cull
John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst
Friday, October 10, 2014 6:31PM CDT
Friday, October 3, 2014 6:08PM CDT
Sunday, September 21, 2014 11:59PM CDT
South America Calling
Alastair Stewart
South America Correspondent
Monday, October 20, 2014 7:11PM CDT
Monday, October 20, 2014 1:49PM CDT
Thursday, October 16, 2014 5:15PM CDT
An Urban’s Rural View
Urban Lehner
Editor Emeritus
Friday, October 17, 2014 12:29PM CDT
Monday, October 13, 2014 11:30AM CDT
Monday, October 6, 2014 10:57AM CDT
Machinery Chatter
Jim Patrico
Progressive Farmer Senior Editor
Monday, October 20, 2014 6:02PM CDT
Thursday, October 16, 2014 1:47PM CDT
Friday, October 10, 2014 6:23PM CDT
Canadian Markets
Cliff Jamieson
Canadian Grains Analyst
Monday, October 20, 2014 10:38PM CDT
Friday, October 17, 2014 9:16PM CDT
Thursday, October 16, 2014 11:11AM CDT
Editor’s Notebook
Greg D. Horstmeier
DTN Editor-in-Chief
Friday, October 17, 2014 11:16AM CDT
Wednesday, October 8, 2014 4:28PM CDT
Thursday, October 2, 2014 5:01PM CDT
Copyright DTN. All rights reserved. Disclaimer.
Powered By DTN